Storm watch · Kp 5.3

Kp 5.3 forecast in the next 3 days — the aurora could push much further south than usual.

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New Zealand · Aurora australis

Is the aurora visible in Nelson tonight?

Right now

Not tonight.

Kp is 0.0. Nelson needs Kp 9+ for the oval overhead — right now it’s not reaching Nelson.

Tonight's peak is forecast around Kp 5.3 (Minor storm). The forecast still depends on darkness, cloud and the moon at your exact spot.

Reliable about 30 minutes ahead — cloud decides the rest.

Nelson only catches the aurora during strong geomagnetic storms — it needs roughly Kp 9+ for the southern lights to come into view. Here's tonight's live space weather and how to plan around it.

How to see the aurora from Nelson

Face south and find a clear, low horizon in that direction. Everything else — dark skies, adapted eyes, the camera trick — is the same anywhere on Earth, so it lives in the how to photograph the aurora guide.

When can you see the southern lights in Nelson?

Aurora season in Nelson runs roughly March – September. Here the months that pay off are May — the table below shows why. See the full best time to see the aurora guide for the season in detail.

Nelson by the numbers

Between Sep 1, 2025 and Aug 31, 2026, Nelson had 365 nights dark enough for the aurora, and the planetary Kp reached the Kp 9+ this place needs on 0 of them. Averaged over 2015–2024 and this location's cloud cover, that works out to well under one aurora-possible night a year.

Month by month at Nelson
MonthDark hours per nightDark nightsAverage cloud coverAurora-possible nights
January8 h3154%0
February9.3 h2851%0
March10.5 h3157%0
April12 h3053%0
May13 h3151%<1
June13.8 h3054%0
July13.5 h3154%0
August12.5 h3155%0
September11.3 h3056%0
October9.8 h3158%0
November8.3 h3059%0
December7.5 h3160%0

Sources: the sun's geometry (dark = at least 6° below the horizon), GFZ Potsdam's Kp index 2015–2024 (CC BY 4.0), ERA5 cloud cover via Open-Meteo (the table shows the monthly mean; the estimate counts days that were not overcast). An estimate for comparing places and months, not a forecast — how we estimate this.

Closer to the oval

Within 400 km, these places need a lower Kp than Nelson:

Where it’s reliable

Chase it where the oval lives